Top MLB Player Prop Bets For Thursday, July 7
Player prop targets for homers, strikeouts and more
Let's take a look at some of the best MLB player prop bets for today's games. Click below to sign up for a BetQL Day Pass to see more bets and game projections with star ratings for every game!
Top MLB Player Prop Bets
José Abreu Over 1.5 Bases (+105 at BetMGM)
Amidst a rather shaky season for the White Sox, Abreu has been a bright spot. Batting .291 with an OBP of .379, he has recorded 13 hits in his last seven games, with at least two bases in three out of his last four games.
Facing off against Bo Brieske, who only made his MLB debut with Detroit in April and has a current ERA of 4.54, two bases should be well within Abreu’s reach. At +105, the money could be better, but for just 1.5 bases, I like this prop. -- Rachael Millanta, BetMGM
Bailey Falter Over 3.5 Ks (+125 at BetMGM)
Philadelphia’s Falter is a long way from a strikeout leader in the MLB, but having recorded at least four in three of his four last outings, over 3.5 K’s is extremely doable. The LHP went up against the Nationals in June and managed 4 K’s, so I’m excited to see him back it up.
Falter’s ERA this season is 4.88, which is higher than I usually like to bet on for strikeouts, but at +125, the money is good against a pretty crappy team. -- R.M.
BEST HOME RUN PICKS
Pirates: Diego Castillo (+480 at FanDuel) & Michael Chavis (+380 BetRivers) at CIN. The Pirates are tied for the fourth-most team home runs against left-handed pitchers, so they’re always on my radar against southpaws. Today they face one of the league’s most homer-prone pitchers in Reds LHP Mike Minor, who’s allowing 3.1 HR/9 this season. That should put Castillo (.383 ISO on the road vs. LHP) and Chavis (.364 ISO on the road vs. LHP) near the top of your HR lists today, especially with solid values at these books. -- Brad Pinkerton
Braves: Austin Riley (+265 at FanDuel) & Adam Duvall (+310 at FanDuel) vs. STL. That team the Pirates are tied with in HRs against lefties? The Braves, thanks in large part to Riley (.375 ISO at home vs. LHP) and Duvall (.452 ISO at home vs. LHP). Today they’ll get to pick on Cardinals rookie lefty Matthew Liberatore, who doesn’t have much of an MLB track record other than all four of his homers allowed coming against right-handed hitters on the road. Of course, all the Braves’ right-handed power bats could take advantage of this matchup, but the only other value I might take a shot on is William Contreras (.320 ISO at home vs. LHP) depending on his spot in the lineup. -- B.P.
D-backs: Jordan Luplow (+360 at FanDuel) & Christian Walker (+400 at FanDuel) vs. COL. Another great lefty matchup for the D-Backs, who face Rockies LHP Austin Gomber in Arizona. Granted, most of the damage against Gomber has come in Colorado, but he has still allowed right-handed hitters to slash .314/.366/.564 against him overall, accounting for 12 of his 13 homers allowed. That puts Luplow (.394 ISO at home vs. LHP) and Walker (.500 ISO at home vs. LHP) in a great spot to go yard tonight. -- B.P.
“BEAT THE STREAK” PICK OF THE DAY: Yordan Alvarez vs. Royals
Alvarez is currently riding a 4-game hit streak, batting .313 on the season with an OPS of 1.071. He has already smashed 25 homers this season, including three in his last seven games, and has recorded at least one hit in every game he’s played against Kansas City in 2022.
Going up against Kansas City’s Kris Bubic, whose ERA is sitting at an underwhelming 7.06, Alvarez shouldn’t have too many problems continuing his hit streak today. -- R.M.
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