At BetQL, our team of MLB betting experts goes above and beyond just looking at win/loss records. We dissect every matchup, analyzing the starting pitchers' ERAs and recent performances, along with the opposing teams' batting averages against pitchers of that handedness.
We factor in historical trends for first-inning scoring for both teams, and any relevant ballpark factors that might influence offense. Our in depth research is what sets our Yes Run First Inning (YRFI) picks apart. We aren't just throwing darts – we're providing you with the most in-depth analysis possible to inform your bets every single day of the MLB season.
MORE: TODAY'S BEST NRFI BETS
At BetQL, our team of MLB betting experts goes above and beyond just looking at win/loss records. We dissect every matchup, analyzing the starting pitchers' ERAs and recent performances, along with the opposing teams' batting averages against pitchers of that handedness.
We factor in historical trends for first-inning scoring for both teams, and any relevant ballpark factors that might influence offense. Our in depth research is what sets our Yes Run First Inning (YRFI) picks apart. We aren't just throwing darts – we're providing you with the most in-depth analysis possible to inform your bets every single day of the MLB season.
MORE: TODAY'S BEST NRFI BETS
Despite not being the best team at scoring runs in the first inning, the Twins are the third-best team in baseball at hitting YRFI bets. That has drawn us to this game, largely because of the pitching matchup. Minnesota’s Bailey Ober had a modest 4.50 ERA in the first inning last year and has allowed four runs on six hits in the first inning of his four starts this year. While most of that came in his first start of the season, we’re still a little skeptical of Ober, even against the lackluster White Sox.
On the other side, Michael Soroka getting the start for Chicago doesn’t fill anyone with confidence. While he’s only given up first-inning runs in two of his five starts, Soroka is also rocking a 7.50 ERA. He’s looked like the type of pitcher who is going to be vulnerable to giving up runs in any inning. Scoring early hasn’t been Minnesota's biggest strength this year, although the Twins have scored at least six runs in three straight games. They’ve hit the rest of Chicago’s pitching staff pretty well and should have a chance to do early damage against Soroka.
Why exactly would we stop going back to the well with the Padres vs Rockies matchups? Colorado is the best YRFI team in baseball while the Padres are hitting it with the sixth-best frequency. We also don't have much confidence in Colorado starter Dakota Hudson, who has an 11.25 ERA in the first inning this season. After Wednesday’s game, the Padres now lead the majors in first-inning runs, so we think they’ll keep scoring early.
Just in case they don’t, San Diego’s Randy Vasquez could end up struggling in the first inning at Coors Field. Despite eventually settling down, he gave up three first-inning runs to the Blue Jays in his only start in 2024. That’s not much of a track record, but the Rockies do have some good hitters at the top of the lineup. Also, there have been first-inning runs in eight of Colorado’s 12 home games, so the odds are in our favor.
A "Yes Runs First Inning" bet, also known as YRFI, is a wager in baseball betting on whether at least one run will be scored in the first inning of the game. It's the opposite of a "No Runs First Inning" (NRFI) bet.
For your YRFI bet to win, you only need one team to score a run in the first inning. This could happen with just one hit, like a home run, or through a combination of baserunning and RBIs (Runs Batted In).
YRFI bets are a popular choice because they offer the chance for a quick win or loss, with the action decided within the first three outs for each team. However, they also tend to have lower odds compared to NRFI bets since statistically, runs are more likely to be scored throughout a game than not at all in the first inning.
Predicting win rates for Yes Run First Inning (YRFI) bets is tricky. Historically, runs are generally scored throughout a game, making No Runs First Inning (NRFI) bets slightly more likely to win overall. However, the real key lies in analyzing each matchup.
Pitchers with a tendency to walk batters or struggle early could open the door for first-inning runs. Strong batting lineups facing weaker pitchers on offense-friendly fields with good weather also increase YRFI chances. Because of these factors, sportsbooks set lower odds for YRFI bets compared to NRFI bets, reflecting their higher statistical likelihood of winning.
Maximizing your win rate for your YRFI bets today requires a deeper dive and a concrete strategy. Here are some key tips to consider:
Know Your Pitchers: Focus on starting pitchers with a history of allowing runs early. Look for high walk rates, a tendency to struggle in the first inning (inflated first-inning ERA), or pitchers facing unfamiliar lineups. These factors can create opportunities for baserunners and early scoring.
Sharpshooters at the Top: Analyze team batting lineups. Teams with strong hitters at the top of the order, known for getting on base and generating power, pose a significant threat in the first inning. Look for matchups where these "hot bats" face pitchers who might struggle to contain them.
Park Power: Don't underestimate the impact of the ballpark. Hitter-friendly parks with short fences or favorable weather conditions can tilt the odds in favor of YRFI bets. Warmer temperatures and parks known for producing more home runs can increase the chance of early offense.
Beyond Statistics: Stay updated on recent news and trends. Is a pitcher coming off an injury? Is a key hitter slumping? Injuries or unexpected lineups can affect performance and influence the likelihood of first-inning runs.
Shopping around for the best odds is crucial for maximizing your return on YRFI bets. Here's a breakdown of some top sportsbooks known for competitive YRFI offerings:
Dive deeper into your betting strategy with BetQL's extensive suite of resources, including: