Chargers vs Raiders
The Chargers and the Raiders have one of those rivalries that tend to bring out the best of both offenses. In fairness, the Chargers won a somewhat tame 24-19 game earlier this season. But the last seven games in this rivalry have ended with a minimum of 41 total points with four of those games finishing with at least 50 total points, including two games that went to overtime. That likely explains the over/under of 50.5 points for this week’s Chargers-Raiders game, and even that might be underestimating the potential of these two teams, especially with both desperate for a win to boost their playoff hopes.
Granted, the Chargers have had a few subpar offensive performances this season, but the potential for a big day is always there with Justin Herbert. They’ve scored at least 23 points in seven of their 11 games, and that’s been largely without having both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams healthy at the same time. While Williams is still battling an injury, Allen is back and should be helpful against a Las Vegas defense that’s conceding 25.1 points per game this year. Meanwhile, Derek Carr and the Raiders are not ones to shy away from a shootout, especially after a 40-34 win over the Seahawks last week. In fact, their loss to the Chargers earlier this year is just one of two games this season in which the Raiders failed to score at least 20 points. If that continues to be the baseline for the Las Vegas offense, the Raiders could be poised to do some damage against one of the worst defenses in the league, making this game destined to see far more than 50 points.
Browns vs Texans
All eyes will be on Deshaun Watson this week, as he makes his debut with the Browns against his former team. There is obviously some mystery about how Watson will perform in his first game in more than a season and a half. But the oddsmakers are expecting some offensive fireworks from both teams this week, setting the over/under at 47 points. Even with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback, the Browns are averaging close to 24 points per game. Nick Chubb has already gone over 1,000 yards for the season, allowing the Cleveland rushing attack to lead the way. That should help take some of the pressure off Watson. Keep in mind the Browns have only failed to reach 20 points this season with Brissett, so the ceiling should be even higher with Watson taking the reins and the Cleveland rushing attack setting the tone.
At the same time, the Cleveland defense has been a huge disappointment this year, allowing 26 points per game. In a way, that ineptitude will be put to the test against the Houston offense. The Texans have scored the second-fewest points in the NFL this season and have averaged just 14.4 points per game over their last seven games, contributing to a six-game losing streak. A change at quarterback to Kyle Allen last week didn’t make much of an impact. But the Texans do have playmakers in Dameon Pierce and Brandin Cooks, who might be able to do some damage against a porous Cleveland defense. With the Texans conceding 23.6 points per game on the season, they’ll have to be aggressive offensively and perhaps find some garbage-time points late in the game, helping to push the point total in this game beyond 47 points.
Colts vs Cowboys
The Dallas Cowboys have frequently won games on the back of their defense this season. Likewise, the Indianapolis Colts have had the same formula in the rare times they’ve had success this year. As a result, oddsmakers have a modest over/under of 43.5 points for this week’s Colts-Cowboys game. These teams are a combined 7-15-1 O/U this year, so low-scoring games have become common for both. The Colts, in particular, have been held to 20 points or less in all but two of their games. Jonathan Taylor continues to be held in check most weeks while the return of Matt Ryan to the starting lineup under interim coach Jeff Saturday hasn’t solved Indy’s offensive problems. Against a Dallas defense that’s held eight of 11 opponents to 20 points or less, this doesn’t appear to be a game in which the Colts can expect to break out offensively.
Of course, the Colts have gone 3-9 O/U this year because they also have a solid defense. Even with the Indy offense providing little support, the Colts have been able to hang tough defensively, holding seven of 12 teams to 20 points or less. Even in the games they’ve lost, the Colts aren’t giving away anything easy defensively. Only two of the team’s 12 games have ended with more than 41 total points being scored. With the Cowboys also having a propensity for playing low-scoring games, the over/under of 43.5 points seems a little ambitious based on the way both of these teams have played this year.
If you aren't into NFL picks against the spread or moneylines, and you are more of an over under guy don't worry BetQL has you covered. Every week you will find our free over under pick analysis here on this page. Each week we unlock at least one game to give every a chance to experience what a BetQL subscription is like, and you will be able to see all the data we have on that game. We will also have our experts weigh in on their favorite over under bets of the week and you can read their thoughts below
We rank each of our bets on a scale of 1 to 5 Stars, with 5 Stars being the most profitable bets each week. Our computer model is able to identify trends and player statistics to see who is performing up to par, and who is slumping. We use real time data and analysis to predict each score, so picking the over under total has never been easier. When there is a large discrepancy between our model projection and the actual line, we give the bet a 5 Star rating so you know you’re making a smart bet. Each pick will include analysis on how the model projected its bet, as well as where the model would have the game lined. You also get the picks faster, because our model begins working on them as soon as the line opens. With BetQL, there is no more worrying about which games to bet on during the NFL season. We even adapt in-game, so you can find the best value while the ball is in the air. We have you covered for every game, from the first kickoff of the season until the last second ticks off the clock in the Super Bowl. No other sport betting service can get you the picks faster and with a higher winning percentage than BetQL, meaning we will keep you ahead of the bookmakers all season long. If you want to start making the most informed NFL picks and getting the best closing line value around, then subscribe to BetQL and start beating the books.
There is no-one that is quicker to get their picks out than BetQL. We want to be sure that you get the best of the number and secure that closing line value before it is stripped away. Our picks go live the instant the odds come out, so you won’t have to wait on the experts to sort through all the research and data. Our computer does that in seconds after each game is played, so it is already able to make a pick as soon as the lines come out on which way the data is telling you to bet. Most NFL odds, and spreads are released on Sunday night and our model will have over under picks for those games instantly, but our model updates throughout the week. If there is big line movement on a game, or injury news that will impact the game our model takes that into account and updates our pick. No matter what day of the week you like to bet or if you are checking on a Monday morning or a Sunday afternoon you can rest assured that you are looking at the best and most updated NFL over under picks available.
Betting an NFL over under is one of the easiest bet types to understand because you are solely betting on how many total points will be scored in the game. The sportsbook will set a line which is the total amount of points you are wagering on for that game, and you simply have to pick if you think more points will be score (over) or less points will be scored (under). It is possible to bet on one team's total number of points but when someone mentions an NFL over under they are probably talking about the total number of combined points scored in the game. Betting the over under is one of the hardest things to do in an NFL game because of the incredible amount of unpredictability involved in the sport. The total is a very common way for sports bettors to wager on a game, and you will see below why even the most inexperienced sports gambler will have an easy time understanding the basics of total betting. We have compiled an example that explains how betting the total works, as well as explaining the odds that are associated with making a total bet on the over under. Check it out below.
NFL Over Under Example: Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears (O46 -110, U46 -110)
Betting the total in an NFL game is hard when it comes to picking a winner, but not hard to understand how it works. As you can see above, the total for this game between Green Bay and Chicago is set at 46. This simply means that the total score between both teams when combined is projected to be 46 points. Betting the over for this game would imply that you believe the total amount of points scored during the game will be higher than 46. If the game lands on exactly 46 points scored, the bet pushes and you get the money back that you wagered on the game. A bet on the under would imply that you believe the total score of the game will be under 46 points. The bet would also push should the number land on 46. So, as you can see, it’s pretty simple to understand. You are just betting if the total amount of points scored in the game is higher or lower than the number listed.
Now for the second part, the actual odds you have to pay to make the bet. This is fairly simple to understand once you know what the numbers mean. In this instance, both totals are listed as -110. What this simply means is that in order to win $100, you must bet $110 dollars. The amounts do not have to be this small or large either, as it would mean the same thing with any amount. An $11 wager would win you $10, while an $1100 dollar wager would win you $1000, and so on. This extra price you have to pay is called “vigor” or “juice” on a line. Think of it like a tax you are having to pay the books to place your bet.
There are times when you will occasionally see a “plus-money” line with a total bet, however, that is somewhat rare. If you do see one, it will simply have a “+” instead of a “-“ in front of the number. Let’s say the number is +160. What this means is that if you bet $100 on this line, you would win $160. So you are not having to pay a tax at all, and instead, you are getting a much higher payout. Lines like these are always on a bet that is more unlikely to win, so you will have to be okay with the risk that involves being in the unfavorable situation.
At BetQL, we know that sports bettors want the most options possible at their disposal before they place their hard-earned money on a NFL game. Not only do we have our computer models picks on each game every week, but we have a team of experts working throughout the season to help you make your bets. This is a team of real people who work each week to crunch the numbers and do their own research to find you the best value on certain games. But that’s not where the options stop with BetQL. We have all the betting data you need from the sports books to figure out where the money is going, from public money percentage to sharp money. This lets you see where the big bets are being placed, and which side the sharp bettors are on.
One of the best ways, and most profitable ways, to bet the over under total is by looking at the sharp action. These numbers will tell you where all the huge tickets are going on a game, compared to where the small wagers are being placed. For example, one team may have a huge number of tickets on them compiling of 90% of the total bets placed on that game for that type of wager, while the other team only has 10%. However, that 10% team may have over 70% of the total money bet on the game, meaning that the bets placed on that team are very large amounts of money. This lets you separate the more inexperienced bettors from the big cats that are placing massive amounts of money on bets every single night. These gamblers are usually sharp bettors, people that gamble for a living and have inside sources that help them win bets. We have this data via our BetQL model that tells us the Sharp %, making sure you know where the pros are betting each and every game.
BetQL is more than just NFL football picks, our model has everything you need to successfully bet on college football. This time of year we have football on 12+ hours every Saturday and Sunday so make sure you are maximizing your profits with BetQL. When you subscribe to BetQL at the highest level you will get college football best bets from our model, picks for every game from our experts, a line movement tracker, consensus picks for the week, 1st half picks against the spread, and over under picks. No matter how you want to bet on football BetQL has you covered will all of our analysis, picks, and data. Bet a better bettor with BetQL