NFL Model Bets

NFL Odds, Lines and Point Spreads

Welcome to BetQL, your premier destination for the most up-to-date NFL odds, lines, and spreads. Every week, we curate and present the freshest data for football enthusiasts and bettors alike. Whether you're rooting for your favorite team or aiming to make the most informed wagers, BetQL ensures you're equipped with the latest and most accurate information. Dive in and stay a step ahead of the game with us!

Keep reading below if you want to catch up on exactly what odds, lines and spreads are and read real life examples of each

NFL Point Spreads Explained

The point spread, often simply referred to as the "spread," is a number set by oddsmakers to even the playing field between two teams. The goal of the spread is not to predict the margin of victory but rather to generate an equal amount of betting on both sides of the game.

Here is how NFL Point Spreads work:

1. Favorites vs. Underdogs: In any matchup, there will typically be a favorite (the team expected to win) and an underdog (the team expected to lose). The favorite will have a negative (-) point value, while the underdog will have a positive (+) point value.
2. The Spread: This is the number of points by which the favorite is expected to beat the underdog. For example, if Team A is a -7 favorite against Team B, they are expected to win by more than 7 points. Conversely, Team B, as a +7 underdog, is expected to lose by fewer than 7 points or win the game outright.
3. Betting on the Spread: When you bet on a team to "cover the spread," you're betting on that team to outperform their expected result.
4. Push: If the favorite wins by exactly the spread amount, the game is considered a "push," and all bets are refunded. Using the above example, if Team A wins by exactly 7 points, then it's a push.

Understanding the point spread is crucial because it allows bettors to wager not just on who will win, but by how much they will win, adding an extra layer of strategy and excitement to the betting experience.

Example:

The New England Patriots are playing the New York Jets in an upcoming game. Based on their recent performances, stats, injuries, and other factors, sportsbooks and oddsmakers have determined the Patriots to be the stronger team.

Spread: Patriots -6.5 vs. Jets +6.5

In this example, the Patriots are favored to win the game by 6.5 points.

If you bet on the Patriots to cover the spread:

• The Patriots need to win the game by 7 or more points for you to win your bet. A final score like Patriots 27, Jets 20 would mean a win for those who bet on the Patriots, as they won by 7 points.

If you bet on the Jets to cover the spread:

• The Jets need to either win outright or lose by 6 points or fewer for you to win your bet. So, if the game ends with a score like Patriots 24, Jets 20, then the Jets have covered the spread (losing by only 4 points), meaning those who bet on the Jets would win.

In point spread betting, the goal isn't necessarily for your team to win the game but rather for them to "cover the spread." It's a way of leveling the playing field between two teams of differing perceived strengths. So, while the Patriots might be expected to beat the Jets in our example, the question for bettors is by how much? The spread quantifies that expectation and provides a benchmark for betting.

Betting Odds Explained

When you hear the term "NFL odds," it generally refers to the likelihood (or odds) of a particular event happening in a football game. These odds are used to determine payouts for bettors should they choose to wager on that event. There are several types of odds that bettors may encounter, but the most common in the U.S. are moneyline odds, point spreads, and over/under totals. Let's break each of these down:

Betting Lines Explained

In the context of NFL betting, when people refer to "lines," they're typically talking about the point spread, but the term can also encompass other types of bets, such as moneylines and over/under totals. These betting lines are set by oddsmakers to level the playing field between two teams and to entice wagers on both sides of the event.

Live Betting Lines Explained

NFL live betting, often referred to as "in-play betting" or "in-game betting," allows bettors to place wagers on a game after it has already started. Live betting lines change in real-time based on the events and dynamics of the game. This form of betting offers a dynamic experience because the odds and lines can shift rapidly based on what's happening on the field.

When are NFL Point Spreads Available?

NFL point spreads are typically available as early as Sunday or Monday of the previous week, and become finalized by Wednesday or Thursday of the game week.

Early in the Week: Initial point spreads for the upcoming weekend's games (or any midweek games) are typically released on Sunday evening or Monday morning. This is after the bulk of that week's games have concluded.

As Game Day Approaches: The point spreads can shift throughout the week based on factors like injuries, weather, and betting patterns from the public. These adjustments can happen multiple times before the game starts. Be sure to check out our NFL line movement tracker to stay up to date on all the latest line movement throughout the week.

What Sportsbooks Offer the Best Point Spreads?

Determining the "best" sportsbooks for point spreads is subjective and depends on your individual preferences and betting style. However, some sportsbooks consistently stand out for their competitive odds, diverse markets, and user-friendly platforms. Here are a few top contenders:

FanDuel Sportsbook: Known for competitive spreads across major sports, early lines, and frequent boosts for specific games or bet types. Excellent mobile app and user interface.

DraftKings Sportsbook: Similar to FanDuel, DraftKings offers competitive spreads and early lines. Their parlay builder and same-game parlay features are popular among experienced bettors.

BetMGM Sportsbook: Offers competitive spreads and frequently runs promotions and bonuses. Strong presence in many US states and good live betting options.

PointsBet Sportsbook: PointsBet's unique "points betting" system adds an element of strategy and potential for higher payouts. Competitive spreads and strong focus on Australian sports.

bet365 Sportsbook: A global leader in online betting, bet365 offers a vast selection of betting markets and competitive odds, including NFL point spreads. Strong live betting platform and user interface.

Caesars Sportsbook: Boasts a user-friendly platform and strong casino integration. Competitive spreads on major sports.

How are Point Spreads Created?

A: Creating NFL lines (often referred to as "setting the lines" or "setting the odds") is a complex process that blends statistical analysis with an understanding of betting trends, public perception, and current events related to teams. Here's a general overview of how sportsbooks establish NFL lines:

Starting with a Base Model: Sportsbooks begin with statistical models that consider a variety of factors such as team performance metrics, individual player statistics, recent form, head-to-head matchups, and more. Advanced algorithms and software analyze this data to produce a preliminary line.

Adjusting for Injuries and Availability: Injuries can significantly impact a game's outcome. If a star player is out or playing injured, the line might shift accordingly. Not only injuries but suspensions, personal reasons, or other factors affecting player availability are also considered.

Evaluating Betting Trends and Public Perception: Oddsmakers monitor how the public bets on teams over the season. Teams with large fan bases or recent success might receive more bets, causing sportsbooks to adjust lines to balance the action.

Incorporating Insider Expertise: Oddsmakers have a deep understanding of the sport and sometimes rely on their intuition and experience, especially in situations where data might not tell the full story or for unforeseen circumstances.

Sharps and Professional Bettors: Sportsbooks pay attention to bets made by "sharps" or professional bettors. These individuals often have in-depth knowledge and might be privy to information that most of the betting public isn't. If a sportsbook sees significant action from sharps on one side, it might indicate something the book is missing, prompting a line adjustment. If you want to know how the sharps are betting this week check out our NFL expert picks, where you can see every game, which side the sharps are leaning.

What are Different Ways to bet on the NFL?

There are many ways to bet on the NFL, beyond just picking the winner or picking against the point spread. Here's a breakdown of some popular options:

Common Bet Types:

Point Spreads: Betting on whether a team will win by more or less than a set number of points (e.g., Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7.5 against the New Orleans Saints).

Moneyline: Simply betting on the winner of the game, regardless of the margin of victory.

Over Unders : Betting on whether the combined score of both teams will be over or under a set number of points (e.g., over/under 45.5 points for the Buccaneers-Saints game).

Parlays: Combining multiple bets into one ticket, where all bets must win for the parlay to payout. Higher potential rewards, but higher risk involved.

Props: Bets on individual player or team performances within a game, such as passing yards for a quarterback, total rushing yards for a running back, or the outcome of the first drive.

Futures: Bets on long-term outcomes, such as which team will win the Super Bowl, who will be the MVP, or the total win-loss record for a specific team.

Live Betting: Placing bets during the game as the action unfolds. Odds constantly change based on the score and game situation.

Want more BetQL NFL Betting Tools?

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