NFL Best Bets for Today

NFL Best Bets for Week 13

Titans vs Eagles
To date, the Philadelphia Eagles have passed just about every test they’ve faced in 2022. But even at 10-1, more challenges await, including the Tennessee Titans, who the Eagles will host this week. Since 2000, Tennessee has won five of the six head-to-head games between these teams. The Titans also look like a safe bet to make the playoffs this season, so this figures to be a challenging game for the Eagles, who are favored by five points at home.

Of course, it wouldn’t be a stretch to call the 7-4 Titans a flawed team. Ryan Tannehill is leading one of the worst passing attacks in the NFL, putting far more pressure on Derrick Henry, who has been forced to carry the Titans more than usual in 2022. While Tannehill has started to make positive strides since coming back after a two-game absence, the Titans have scored less than 20 points in three of the last four games that he’s started, including a loss last week against the Bengals. In turn, that has put a world of pressure on the Tennessee defense. The good news is the Titans have allowed 20 points or less in eight straight games, even keeping the Chiefs and Bengals to 20 points. But that still doesn’t create a lot of hope given how limited the Titans look offensively.

Meanwhile, the Eagles have endured a few problematic weeks themselves, losing to the Commanders and barely escaping with a 17-16 win over the Colts. But they got back to flying high offensively with 40 points in last week’s win over the Packers. Philadelphia ranks third in the NFL in points scored with Jalen Hurts using his athleticism to perfection. He and Miles Sanders headline a top-5 rushing attack while A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith provide plenty of explosive plays in the passing game. Even for a top-notch Tennessee defense, that kind of offensive balance isn’t going to be easy to contain for 60 minutes. That should allow the Eagles to eventually pull away from the Titans, who won’t be able to match them score for score.

Dolphins vs 49ers
Is it weird to think about the Week 13 game between the Dolphins and the 49ers as a potential Super Bowl preview? Both teams have surely surpassed preseason expectations and appear to be trending in the right direction heading into December. That should make this week’s game a fascinating matchup. While these two teams rarely meet, the Dolphins have won four of the last five head-to-head meetings, including a 43-17 win at Levi’s Stadium in 2020. Yet, the Dolphins return to the Bay Area this week as four-point underdogs.

At this point, it’s impossible to deny the fact that Miami is undefeated this season in games that Tua Tagovailoa starts and finishes. They lost the game in which he was knocked out with a concussion and the two games he missed after that. But since his return, the Dolphins have rattled off five straight wins. The caveat is that the 4-7 Browns are likely the best team Miami beat during that five-game stretch. Scoring at least 30 points in four straight games needs to be taken with a grain of salt. The Dolphins still don’t have much of a rushing attack, not to mention a defense that’s giving up 23.3 points per game. That continues to put pressure on Tagovailoa to overcome those shortcomings week after week.

This week, Tagovailoa will have to face the best defense in the NFL. During their current four-game winning streak, the 49ers have allowed a total of 40 points, giving them an average of just 15.7 points per game conceded, which is the lowest in the league. If you take away their loss to the Chiefs, the 49ers are allowing just 10.5 points per game at home this season. Even with that game included, San Francisco’s defense is allowing 17.2 points per game at home. At the same time, the 49ers have a balanced offense with Christian McCaffrey helping to improve the running game while Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk provide threats in the passing game. While McCaffrey and Jimmy Garoppolo are both questionable this week, if they’re able to play, San Francisco’s stout defense and balanced offense should be enough to overcome Tagovailoa and the upstart Dolphins.

Chiefs vs Bengals
The Week 13 NFL schedule brings us the highly anticipated rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals. With the way the last month has unfolded, it’s impossible to rule out these two teams meeting again in the playoffs this season. That surely adds another element of importance to this week’s game, especially with the Chiefs heading to Cincinnati as two-point road favorites.

On the heels of a three-game winning streak, the Bengals look like one of the most confident teams in the NFL right now. Cincinnati started the season 0-2 after getting to the Super Bowl last season. But they have cranked things up a notch, especially on offense. Over their last six games, the Bengals are averaging 29.5 points per game despite losing Ja’Marr Chase to injury. The Joe Burrow of the last month resembles the Joe Burrow who ended the 2021 season and then led the Bengals to the Super Bowl. He’s receiving a little better protection lately, getting sacked just four times in the last three games, which is a huge step forward for the Cincinnati offensive line. If that continues, the Bengals will be a tough out against any team they play.

Of course, the challenge in front of Burrow and the Bengals this week is MVP frontrunner Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. The Chiefs have rattled off five straight wins, averaging 29.4 points per game during that stretch. Mahomes has thrown for at least 320 yards in six consecutive games, looking unbothered by the fact that the Chiefs don’t have a consistent running game and that his leading receiver is a tight end. Defensively, the Chiefs still have some questions to answer, which is usually the case. But with Mahomes having another MVP-caliber season, he’s capable of helping the Chiefs overcome all of their shortcomings. Even against a quality opponent on the road, it’s tough to bet against Mahomes leading Kansas City to victory.

The Most Updated NFL Point Spreads

If you are here for NFL point spreads you came to the right place because at BetQL we have the most updated point spreads directly from the sportsbooks. If the point spread moves at all at the sportsbook you can be sure that we have the most updated line on this page. Having the most updated NFL point spread is crucial to being a successful football bettor. There is nothing worse that doing research for a game, coming to check the NFL point spreads for Sunday afternoon, heading to your sportsbook to place a bet and then seeing the point spread actually moved earlier that morning.

Whether you want to check for the most updated spreads and lines, or you want to know which way BetQL's model is picking don't worry we have your covered! Never get caught up by a website that is posting images of spreads from earlier in the week again, make sure you are looking at live NFL point spreads at BetQL!

NFL Point Spreads Explained

The most common way to bet on the NFL, and college football for that matter, is betting Against The Spread (ATS). So, what is betting ATS? For every game, there will be a point spread. The point spread will be shown next to each team and will always be inverse numbers of each other. For example you may see (-6) next to one team and (+6) next to the other. These numbers are the point spread and they will be inverse numbers every single time. The team that is favored will be listed with a negative number (ie. -6) and that is the number they need to win the game by. In this example the favorite must win by 6 or more points to “cover” the spread and win the bet. If they win the game by exactly 6-points the bet is considered a “push” or “no-bet”. The team with the positive number is called the underdog and next to their team will the same point spread number as the favorite, but positive. This number is the maximum their team can lose by. In this example the underdog can lose by 6 points or less to be considered a win. If the team loses by exactly 6 then the bet is considered a “push” or “no-bet”.

You may be wondering why NFL point spreads exist and the answer to that is to make it fair / more approachable to bet each side. The sportsbook aim is to get as many people to bet on the favorite as they have people betting the underdog. This is because they will make money no matter who wins if both sides are equal. Everyone has a good idea who is going to win the game straight up or "on the moneyline" but the point spread is added to even the game out and make things a bit more fair. No one thinks the Rams will lose to the Jaguars outright but when the Jaguars are given a 7.5 point head start things become a lot more fair.

NFL Point Spread Example: Green Bay Packers (-7) vs. Chicago Bears (+7)
(Packers Must Win By More Than 7 Points) Chicago Bears +7 (Bears Can’t Lose By More Than 7 Points)

The Green Bay Packers are playing the Chicago Bears in Chicago at Soldier Field, and the NFL point spread is set at 7 with the Packers favored. The Bears (+7) can lose the game by up to 7 points and still cover. The Packers (-7) must win the game by at least 8 points to cover the point spread, as a 7-point win would be a push and you just get your bet refunded. So, let’s say the Bears with their new starter Justin Fields beat Aaron Rodgers and the Packers 24 to 21. In this scenario, the Bears (+7) actually won 31 to 14 against the Packers (-7). That’s because if you are going by the point spread, you add 7 to the final score for the Bears, and take away 7 points for the Packers. Whoever came out on top after that calculation, was the winner of the bet. In this case, all Bears backers win and everyone who bet the Packers takes the loss.

NFL Odds Explained

When some one mentions NFL odds they are talking about the statistical probability that a team is likely to win the game. When betting on the NFL the odds will always be listed next to the point spread, the over under, or whatever line you are betting. For example if you are betting on an over under your sportsbook will show, Over (-110), Under (-120) these numbers are the odds and they signify how likely that bet is to win. The NFL odds will always be in parenthesis (-110) next to the bet type!

The format of NFL odds you will most likely see on your sportsbook is called American Odds, which works in values of 100. When you see (-110) that means you have to wager $110 to win $100. If you see (-250) that means you will have to wager $250 to win $100. American odds are easiest to understand when you are betting in multiples of 100. On the other side if you see a positive number that team is the underdog so if a team is (+110) it means if you place a $100 wager on that team and they will you will get $110.

We know betting against the spread can be a bit confusing and learning about NFL odds and point spreads isn't exactly easy so we wrote out some examples for you below

NFL Odds Example: Chicago Bears (+7, -110) vs. Green Bay Packers (-7, -110)

This NFL odds example should be fairly simple to understand once you know what the numbers mean. In this instance, both odds are listed as -110. This simply means is that in order to win $100, you must bet $110 dollars on either side. The amounts do not have to be this small or large either, as it would mean the same thing with any amount. An $11 wager would win you $10, while an $1,100 dollar wager would win you $1,000, and so on. This extra price you have to pay is called “vig” or “juice” on a line. Think of it like a tax you are having to pay the books to place your bet.

There are times when you will see a “plus-money” odds with a spread bet, however, that is very rare. If you do see one, it will simply have a “+” instead of a “-“ in front of the number. Let’s say the number is +160. What this means is that if you bet $100 on this line, you would win $160. So, you are not having to pay a tax at all, and instead, you are getting a much higher payout. Lines like these are always on a bet that is more unlikely to win, so you will have to be okay with the risk that involves being in the unfavorable situation. The larger the odds, the bigger the underdog, and the more you can win by betting them if they win.

Luckily for all of us, BetQL is here to tell us if there is any value in the lines that get released each week. If a team is favored by a -500 mark, you have to bet $500 to win $100, which means that is a huge favorite and a big risk if they lose. BetQL will let you know

NFL Lines Explained:

Lines are very easy to figure out. When someone says “What’s the line?”, they are basically just asking you what the spread is. In the examples from above, you’d just say that the spread is 7 with Green Bay favored, and the odds are -110 both ways. When you go to the sportsbook, you’ll see a whole bunch of numbers that will probably be confusing or overwhelming to the novice sports bettor. Betting the NFL can also be heartbreaking, but by knowing what the line is, you’ll be able to make a more informed bet. Don’t go into a sportsbook unprepared and without knowing what certain dialogue means. BetQL is here to help you bet on these lines and make smarter bets that win.

Want More Football Picks?

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