MLB Playbook: Betting Lines, Odds & Picks for Thursday, July 7
Today's MLB betting odds, trends and picks you need to know
Bryan Zarpentine - Jul 7, 2022, 2:00pm EDTMLB Betting Playbook for Thursday
Thursday’s MLB schedule has everything baseball fans could ever want. There are day games, night games, a doubleheader, and plenty of rivalry games, including a renewal of the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry. In fact, that’s only one of eight games between division rivals on Thursday. Let’s not waste any time in taking a closer look at the top best and most important trends for Thursday’s games.
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MLB BEST BET
Angels-Orioles Over 8.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Neither team is in an enviable position in the standings, but that doesn’t mean an exciting, high-scoring game isn’t on tap for the Angels and Orioles on Thursday. In fact, the BetQL model, which has excelled on over/under bets all season, is giving five stars to the over in this game. The caveat is that the Angels have had a total of seven runs or less in three straight games while four of Baltimore’s six games in July have ended with seven runs or less. But that could mean that both teams are due for a high-scoring game. Plus, six of the last seven games between these teams have hit the over.
Of course, it’s a subpar pitching matchup that is driving the likelihood of a high-scoring affair. Rookie Chase Silseth has a 5.23 ERA over the first five starts of his MLB career. He’s allowed at least three runs in three of his last four starts, failing to complete five innings in each start, meaning the Angels will likely need to get a lot of outs from their bullpen. Meanwhile, Baltimore’s Jordan Lyles owns a 4.70 ERA this year. While he looked good against the Twins last week, Lyles also pitched to a 6.28 ERA in June, so he’s unlikely to have quality starts in back-to-back outings.
TOP PLAYER HR PROPS
D-backs: Jordan Luplow (+360 at FanDuel) & Christian Walker (+400 at FanDuel) vs. COL. Another great lefty matchup for the D-Backs, who face Rockies LHP Austin Gomber in Arizona. Granted, most of the damage against Gomber has come in Colorado, but he has still allowed right-handed hitters to slash .314/.366/.564 against him overall, accounting for 12 of his 13 homers allowed. That puts Luplow (.394 ISO at home vs. LHP) and Walker (.500 ISO at home vs. LHP) in a great spot to go yard tonight. -- Brad Pinkerton
TODAY'S MLB GAMES & BETTING TRENDS
While the betting lines for the first game of Thursday’s doubleheader are close, the Reds are just 4-14 this year when playing at home with a moneyline between +125 and -125. Of course, they are also just 16-37 (.302) SU at home in 2022.
Houston’s eight-game winning streak came to a sudden end on Wednesday against the Royals. They are in good shape to get back to their winning ways on Thursday, as they are 11-4 in Justin Verlander’s starts. But don’t sleep on the Royals, who are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
The Nats responded to an 11-0 loss on Tuesday with a 3-2 win on Wednesday, ending a six-game losing streak and setting up a rubber match against the Phillies. However, they are recalling Joan Adon to make the start despite being 1-12 this year in games that he’s started.
Not only are the Orioles the best team in the majors ATS, but they’ve been particularly good at home, going 26-12 (.684) ATS. They’ve also won four straight games SU whereas the Angels have continued to sputter since their epic losing streak last month.
Despite the 16-0 beat down the Pirates took against the Yankees on Wednesday, they’ve won four of their last seven games overall while also having an identical record ATS during that span. However, Pittsburgh is the third-worst team ATS when playing on the road this year, going 18-20 ATS and just 13-25 SU.
The Mets need Trevor Williams to make one more spot start for their injury-plagued rotation after losing the last two games he’s started. However, the Mets still have the best in-division record in baseball, going 24-9 (.727) against the rest of the NL East this year.
After a red-hot June for the Red Sox, they are just 3-6 over their last nine games. During that stretch, the underdog has won six of Boston’s last seven games, which bodes well for the Red Sox as home underdogs. In six previous games this season, the Red Sox are 3-3 ATS as home underdogs.
Atlanta is going for the four-game sweep, outscoring the Cards 16-4 over the first three games of the series. The Braves are 7-2 SU and 7-2 ATS in their last nine games. They also have the second-best winning percentage in the majors against left-handed starters, going 20-8 (.714) when facing a southpaw.
Don’t sleep on the Tigers, who just completed a four-game sweep of the Guardians. But at the midway point of the season, Detroit is averaging just 3.2 runs per game. Meanwhile, Dylan Cease is 8-0 over the last two years when facing an American League team averaging less than 3.9 runs per game.
San Francisco’s six-game losing streak is over after the Giants beat the Diamondbacks on Wednesday. But they are still in the midst of a rough patch, just like the Padres, who are 2-8 in their last 10 games. The good news for both teams is they have their ace on the mound Thursday. San Diego is 11-3 when Joe Musgrove starts despite being 3-3 in his last six starts. Likewise, the Giants have lost four of Logan Webb’s last six starts despite being 10-6 overall when he starts.
After three losses in Los Angeles earlier this week, the Rockies are just 12-26 (.316) on the road this season. Yet, the Rockies are slight road favorites on Thursday. Under Torey Lovullo, the D’Backs are 82-62 (.569) ATS when playing at home with a moneyline between +125 and -125. They are also 17-12 ATS this year as home underdogs.
The Mariners have heated up lately, winning seven of their last eight games, allowing them to reach .500 with a win on Thursday. However, Seattle’s lineup continues to struggle, scoring two runs or less in six of their last 10 games. Also, they are somehow 1-6 in the last seven games Marco Gonzales has started.
The Cubs are experiencing one of their best stretches of the season, going 8-4 in their last 12 games and winning four straight series. In fact, three of those series have come against teams that would be in the playoffs if the season ended right now. Of course, the Dodgers have also won seven of their last eight and 10 of the last 11 games started by Tony Gonsolin.
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