The Sharp Side: Expert NFL Betting Advice For Super Bowl

In the legal sports-betting system, the people are represented by two separate, yet equally important groups: the squares, who keep the sportsbooks in business by betting the obvious side, and the sharp bettors, who make a living by beating the books.

We always want to be on the Sharp Side, and these are their plays for Super Bowl LVIII.

49ers ML vs. Chiefs (-120, DraftKings)

Am I going to regret this bet as much as I regret backing the Ravens in the AFC Championship game for multiple units? No, because I don't feel as strongly about it as I did in that game. However, this is the last game of the 2023 NFL season, so you had best believe that I would like to end it with a bang. This might be the most obvious sharp play of all time to most of you out there who are interested in sharp betting, but it is also important to factor in how much liability the sportsbooks have on future bets on both teams.

At first glance, taking San Francisco here is a complete no-brainer bet for sharp bettors. A whopping 78% of the ML tickets are on the Chiefs and 66% of the ATS tickets are backing them as well. To quote BetMGM's Christian Cipolini in a recent interview with Patrick Everson from Vegas Insider, "By kickoff, we'll probably be rooting for the 49ers. It's been nothing but Chiefs action. If it keeps going, it will be enough to take over our 49ers futures liability."

That's a pretty glaring statement to make about how much money has been rolling in on Kansas City. What a lot of people don't take into account is the futures liability that the sportsbooks have on teams in the playoffs. Even though all the money is flying in on the Chiefs, the sportsbooks might still need them if they have a higher payout liability on San Francisco.

In this case, the sheer mass of bets coming in from the public on the Chiefs could tip the scale in who Vegas will be rooting for in this game. This is even with some really huge wagers coming in on the 49ers, including a $1 million wager on 49ers ML at Caesars last week. They have also taken bets of $500,000 and $136,000 on the 49ers ML, while DraftKings took a $500,000 wager on the 49ers. These are all a part of the just 22% of tickets on 49ers ML.

The Superbook, one of the largest and sharpest books in the country, moved San Francisco from -2 to -2.5. Their John Murray was quoted as saying, "Two-thirds of spread tickets are on the Chiefs. But our bigger tickets and most importantly our sharper players have been on San Francisco."

I have been burned by the Chiefs several times already, and I'm getting pretty tired of this team, quite honestly. I'd probably bet on the 49ers out of pure loathing and revulsion for this version of Kansas City, but now I feel much more confident with the sportsbooks likely needing San Francisco as well.

Every casual bettor I know and every person I have asked who they like in this game says the Chiefs are going to win the Super Bowl. It's extremely scary when the public is so heavily on one side, and that side happens to be an underdog. This might be the most lopsided betting handle in years in the Super Bowl.

If you know me, you know how I bet. No one wants to take the 49ers here, that much is clear as day. But when the sportsbooks are saying that by kickoff, they will need the Niners, it becomes obvious what we have to do. The best odds on San Francisco right now are at DraftKings, so you can head there and make this disgusting wager with me.

In Brock we trust. It's time to disappoint every Swifty in America. The 49ers will indeed be the sharp side.