NASCAR Odds, Predictions & Best Bets For This Weekend's Race

Our favorite drivers, odds and betting picks for the EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix in Austin

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NASCAR Odds, Predictions & Best Bets For EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix

Road racing fans continue to be well served in 2024 with five races on twisty tracks, one down from last year’s six events. The Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road course has been replaced by a return to the oval, which few fans can see fault with.

As it has for three years, the Circuit of the Americas (COTA) kicks off the weekend having replaced one of the two Texas Motor Speedway dates in 2021 in a deal between that track and the Austin, Texas road course built to the international specifications of the FIA and Formula 1. This is not a dumbed-down version of a prestigious course like Watkins Glen International with the elimination of the boot or the occasional drop of the carousel from Sonoma Raceway.

COTA is a tough track to navigate and that is part of the reason why it has been won by three different drivers in three seasons. One driver has swept the top five in those three races, another might have if not for a snowboarding accident and four have swept the top 10. The cream tends to rise to the top on road courses; this is not a skill that can be faked.

And yet, with the extra races added several years ago, no one has been able to sweep all of the road courses in a recent season – although one of them has come close with two results outside the top 10 and one worse than 11th in the last 13 races. And the good news is that Chris Buescher is somehow flying under the radar with consensus odds of +2250.

The bad news is that no one scored multiple road course wins in 2023, so this is a difficult course type to handicap.

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NASCAR Odds, Predictions & Best Bets For EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix

Road racing fans continue to be well served in 2024 with five races on twisty tracks, one down from last year’s six events. The Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road course has been replaced by a return to the oval, which few fans can see fault with.

As it has for three years, the Circuit of the Americas (COTA) kicks off the weekend having replaced one of the two Texas Motor Speedway dates in 2021 in a deal between that track and the Austin, Texas road course built to the international specifications of the FIA and Formula 1. This is not a dumbed-down version of a prestigious course like Watkins Glen International with the elimination of the boot or the occasional drop of the carousel from Sonoma Raceway.

COTA is a tough track to navigate and that is part of the reason why it has been won by three different drivers in three seasons. One driver has swept the top five in those three races, another might have if not for a snowboarding accident and four have swept the top 10. The cream tends to rise to the top on road courses; this is not a skill that can be faked.

And yet, with the extra races added several years ago, no one has been able to sweep all of the road courses in a recent season – although one of them has come close with two results outside the top 10 and one worse than 11th in the last 13 races. And the good news is that Chris Buescher is somehow flying under the radar with consensus odds of +2250.

The bad news is that no one scored multiple road course wins in 2023, so this is a difficult course type to handicap.

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NASCAR Picks For Food City 500 at Bristol

1. Shane Van Gisbergen ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +900

Consensus Odds*: +1140 | Best Odds: MGM +1400

Everyone slept on SVG last year when he made his inaugural NASCAR attempt on the Chicago Street course. With high opening odds of 60/1at MGM and consensus odds of 47/1, it’s safe to say he did not worry the traders before the race began. He became the first racer in the Modern Era to win his first Cup race. Of course, there is an asterisk next to his name since that race was run in wet conditions on a street course that was completely unfamiliar to the competition but common to him. The traders aren’t quite certain what to do with him still. DraftKings has him at +900, the lowest of the six we track, while MGM (+1400) and BetRivers (+1300) have a line that makes him much more attractive. Bet early; if he qualifies well, those lines will plummet. 

2. Tyler Reddick ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +450

Consensus Odds*: +404 | Best Odds: PointsBet +475

If one considers the past two years, Reddick has easily been the most successful road racer. No one won more than one of these races in 2023, but Reddick’s win came on this track early in the season. Equally important, he supplements that win with a pair of victories in 2022 from Road America and the Indy Road course. He struggled in Chicago and Sonoma before rebounding to end the season with three consecutive top-10s. Since fall 2021, he has six top-fives and 10 top-10s in 13 road course races.

3. Chase Elliott ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +750

Consensus Odds*: +792 | Best Odds: MGM +900

We’ve lost confidence in Elliott on almost every type of track, but even with recent challenges he’s been extraordinarily strong on road courses. While he struggled almost everywhere else last year, he was almost perfect on this course type and after missing the COTA race because of a broken leg from a snowboarding accident, he rattled off three straight top-fives. He won the inaugural COTA race in 2021 and finished fourth there in 2022. 

4. Kyle Busch ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +1500

Consensus Odds*: +1650 | Best Odds: MGM +2000

Admittedly, Busch caught us by surprise at COTA last year. It should have taken a little longer to get accustomed to the Richard Childress Racing (RCR) No. 8, but he was a serious challenger in this race and finished second to Reddick. That was part of a four-race, top-five streak on road courses. He wasn’t as strong in the next two races on this course-type, but was back in top-five form on the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval and finished third. It is surprising to see him outside the top 10 in consensus odds. 

5. Chris Buescher ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +2500

Consensus Odds*: +2250 | Best Odds: FanDuel +3000

Buescher simply got overlooked by the traders this week. Without a win in the last two seasons, he is the driver with the most top-10s and while that doesn’t make him a favorite for the outright win, odds of 25/1 at DraftKings drag his top-five line to +300; he has three of those in recent events including a fourth at Sonoma last year. His top-10 line is -110, which is close enough to even money to make that marginally attractive considering that he’s batting .833 in that regard over the past 12 road course races.

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6. Ty Gibbs ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +1100

Consensus Odds*: +1100 | Best Odds: BetRivers +1300

We’re not ready to form a bandwagon for Gibbs just yet, but we did concede to the sportsbook traders last week and ranked this Young Gun eighth for Bristol Motor Speedway. He finished ninth, which was his fourth consecutive top-10 this season. He should do better on the road course given his recent record. Bold bettors might want to take a risk on a top-three finish at +300 (DraftKings). In six races on twisty tracks last year, Gibbs scored two top-fives and four top-10s. 

7. Michael McDowell ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +1700

Consensus Odds*: +1883 | Best Odds: MGM, FanDuel, BetRivers +2000

For quite a few years, McDowell was one of our favorite dark horses on road courses. As always seems to happen, when we stopped focusing on him, he had a resurgence on this track type in 2022 with four consecutive top-10s that included a third at Sonoma. Last year, he started out with a 12th at COTA, two seventh-place finishes at Sonoma and Chicago and then his win at Indy. Caveat Emptor, however; his last two efforts on twisty tracks ended outside the top 30.

8. AJ Allmendinger ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +1500

Consensus Odds*: +1517 | Best Odds: Caesars, FanDuel, BetRivers +1600

Allmendinger is the most recent Cup winner on a road course. There were six different winners on this track type in 2023, so finding the right driver will be challenging, but ‘Dinger was certainly on the radar last fall with opening odds of 10/1 on every book we track. There are two reasons for his higher odds this year. First off, the average consensus line among the top 10 drivers last year was +919 compared to +1010 this week. Secondly, he is not full time and that could affect his chemistry with the team. He’s good enough to overcome it.

9. William Byron ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +

Consensus Odds*: +1267 | Best Odds: BetRivers +1500

Often the last couple of drivers on the Pick Sheet are dark horses, but there is enough confidence and attractiveness for some of those longshots to move them up. A bettor can lose a lot of money concentrating on that type of driver, however, so there should be some additional picks from marquee teams. Byron is not as hungry as we would like after his Daytona 500 victory, but he was solid and occasionally great on road courses last year. He swept the top 15 there, won at Watkins Glen, finished second on the Charlotte Roval and fifth at COTA. 

10. Ross Chastain ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +1200

Consensus Odds*: +1283 | Best Odds: BetRivers +1600

Chastain is the only driver to have swept the top five in all three COTA races and his victory there in 2022 turned a lot of heads and made him a very popular pick. That was enough to give him consensus odds of +817 on this track last year, third best behind Kyles Larson and Busch. By comparison, the traders have lost some confidence in him in 2024. That is largely because he has not scored a road course top-five since. It could play into your favor if you weigh track stats above track type stats and Chastain is +150 for a top-five at DraftKings and +120 at FanDuel.

*Consensus odds at the average of six sportsbooks: DraftKings, Fanatics, MGM, Caesars, FanDuel, and BetRivers.

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