College Football Playoff 2023: Best Bets For No. 3 Texas vs. No. 2 Washington Sugar Bowl

2023 Sugar Bowl: Best Bets For #3 Texas vs. #2 Washington

It's college football bowl season, and we have an amazing matchup in the College Football Playoff semifinal at the Sugar Bowl. We have No. 3 Texas taking on No. 2 Washington in what should be a fantastic matchup between two of the best teams in the country.

The Texas Longhorns are -4.5 favorites over the Washington Huskies in the 2023 Sugar Bowl, which will be broadcast on ESPN at 8:45 p.m. ET at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

BetQL has you covered for everything college football, so let's dive right into this contest!

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Texas vs. Washington: Live Odds

Texas Longhorns Outlook

It's been a long time coming for these Longhorns, but finally, they are back in the mix as a serious national championship contender. They defeated the Oklahoma State Cowboys, 49-21, in a blowout victory in the Big 12 championship game, which pretty much solidified their position in making the CFP. All that was left to decide was which seed they would be, and after the committee chose not to include undefeated ACC champion Florida State, Texas got the good news that they would be the 3-seed and take on the undefeated Pac 12 champion Washington Huskies.

Texas has been somewhat of a roller coaster ride on offense this season, but for the most part, they have been quite good. They rank 15th in yards per play in the FBS, generating a lot of explosive plays down the field. When QB Quinn Ewers went down to injury, the offense struggled, but has gotten back on track since he returned. They have struggled in the red zone, ranking 93rd in the country while operating in that area, but that has been their biggest weakness by far. Overall, this is a very solid unit.

Defensively, the Longhorns have also been very good. They rank 24th in yards per play allowed, meaning they don't give up a lot of explosive plays, and are one of the best rushing defenses in the country. They allow just 80.9 rushing yards per game, good for fourth in the FBS. Texas has been particularly effective on third down, ranking second in the nation in third-down conversion percentage allowed. Where you can beat them is through the air, as they are ranked just 95th against the pass.

Washington Huskies Outlook

What a magical season it has been for the Huskies, who finished the season at an undefeated 13-0 on their way to the last Pac-12 title in conference history. They defeated the Oregon Ducks for the second time this season in the championship game, 34-31, in a thriller that came down to the last moments. With their victory, they punched their ticket into the CFP as the No. 2 seed. They are underdogs in this game, despite being undefeated and taking on a one-loss team.

We all know the strength of this team is on the offensive side of the ball, where QB Michael Penix Jr. is in the mix for the Heisman Trophy for his incredible play in 2023. The Huskies rank fourth in the country in yards per play, generating a crazy amount of explosive plays that have helped them get to where they are now. Penix has been on another level, and Washington is the best passing attack in the country, gaining 343.9 yards through the air per game. No one has been more dominant through the air. However, they have almost no rushing attack to speak of, which has made them one-dimensional.

Defensively, you wouldn't think this team was undefeated if you just looked at this unit. They are ranked 68th in yards per play allowed, which is by far the worst unit of any of the four playoff teams. They allow a decent amount of explosive plays to their opponents, especially through the air, and they rank 122nd vs. the pass. There is no doubt that this unit is a huge reason why they are underdogs to the No. 3 seed.

Texas vs. Washington: Expert Picks

Matt Horner: Lean Texas -4 (-110, BetMGM)

Texas is the more complete team here, with a top-25 offense and defense. While Washington owns a lethal offense, their defense will be a massive liability to them against Ewers and the Texas attack. I haven't bet this game yet, but I'd certainly lean the Longhorns.

Dan Karpuc: Texas -4 (-110, BetMGM)

Sure, Texas (12-1 SU) lost to Oklahoma this season. But, I don’t care at all. Washington went 13-0 SU this year, but won their last three games (against Oregon State, Washington State and Oregon) by a grand total of eight points. Speaking of eight, eight of Washington’s 13 victories came by single digits and I expect the Huskies to get exposed by the Longhorns. This game will take place in New Orleans, so the Longhorns should have a massive presence in the crowd, which should also give them an advantage in this matchup.

Kate Constable: Washington +4.5 (-112, FanDuel)

While Texas may be the more complete team, this matchup favors Michael Penix Jr. The Huskies offense is built around throwing the ball, which is why they lead the nation in passing yards per game, averaging 343.8. Their receiving group features Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk, who both finished the season with at least 1,000 yards receiving, and Jalen McMillan who missed a few games with injury but is also a massive threat. Texas’ biggest weakness is defending the pass. The Longhorns rank 85th in passing defense, giving up 240.8 yards per game through the air. They are also just 61st in sack percentage, so I don’t see Texas getting to Penix and forcing him to make quick decisions all that often. I know that Washington hasn’t put up huge numbers recently, but I think that changes against a weak Texas secondary. 

Lucy Burdge: Washington +4.5

Washington comes into this game as the underdog against Texas and the good news for them is they won outright in both games they played as the underdog already this season, including +9.5 in the Pac 12 title game against Oregon. And I believe in Michael Penix Jr., who has racked up 4,218 passing yards with 33 touchdowns. So I like Penix and Washington to at least keep this close and cover, if not take down Texas here.

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