College Football Playoff 2023: Best Bets For No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Michigan Rose Bowl

2023 Rose Bowl: Best Bets For #4 Alabama vs. #1 Michigan

It's bowl season in college football, and there is almost none bigger than the granddaddy of them all, the Rose Bowl. This season, we will have Alabama taking on Michigan in what should be a fantastic matchup between two of the best teams in the country.

The Michigan Wolverines are -1.5 favorites over the Alabama Crimson Tide in the 2023 Rose Bowl, which will be broadcast on ESPN at 5 p.m. ET at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena.

BetQL has you covered for everything college football, so let's dive right into this contest.

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#4 Alabama vs. #1 Michigan: Live Odds

Alabama Crimson Tide Outlook

There is a lot of controversy here as to whether Alabama truly deserves to be in the CFP, but the committee concluded that it should be. I am not here to say if that was the right or wrong decision to exclude an undefeated Power 5 champion like Florida State, but rather dive into the Crimson Tide. They managed to get here by defeating No. 1 Georgia in the SEC championship game, 27-24, handing the Bulldogs their first loss in almost two years. Alabama finished 12-1 on the year, only losing to Texas earlier in the season.

Offensively, Alabama is ranked 39th in the FBS in yards per play and generally has been a pretty good unit overall. QB Jalen Milroe has gotten better each week since head coach Nick Saban benched him for now-lacrosse player Tyler Buchner for one game after that loss to the Longhorns. Perhaps their biggest strength has been their ability to operate effectively in the red zone, where they are scoring 94% of the time they get down there. It was a big help for them in their game against Auburn a few weeks ago, scoring a game-winning touchdown from 30 yards out in a goal-to-go situation. Their biggest weakness has been their offensive line, which has allowed a whopping 3.3 sacks per game, good for 117th in the country.

Defensively, it's the same old Crimson Tide that we have known for a long time. They are elite on this side of the ball, ranking 17th in yards per play allowed. They have been able to shut down most of the offenses they have played, and they don't give up many first downs to their opponents, letting up just 16.4 per game. Georgia's offense was the best they have played and one of the best in the FBS, and they held them to 24 points.

Michigan Wolverines Outlook

The undefeated Big 10 champion Wolverines were probably expecting to take on Texas here, and they seemed quite surprised in their CFP reveal video that they were taking on the Crimson Tide. After losing to TCU last year in this same spot, they will be looking for some vindication. They annihilated Iowa in the Big 10 title game, 26-0. Shutting out Iowa isn't exactly hard, but impressive nonetheless.

Offensively, Michigan probably isn't as good as some might think, ranking 42nd in the FBS in yards per play. QB J.J. McCarthy has been efficient, but they rank in the bottom half of the country in passing yards per game. Their best trait, in my opinion, has been their ability to convert on third down. They rank 15th in the country in third-down conversion percentage, converting on 46.7% of their attempts. They are not the best offense in the country, but they do what they need to win games.

Defensively, this is where Michigan makes its money. The Wolverines own one of the best defenses in the country, ranking fourth in yards per play allowed. They are ranked second in the country in first downs allowed per game and second in the country in passing yards allowed as well and are ranked in the top 10 in several other key categories. It is not going to be easy for the Crimson Tide to move the ball on them.

Alabama vs. Michigan Expert Picks

Matt Horner: Lean Michigan -1 (-110, PointsBet)

I think that the Wolverines are the better team overall. While the weakest unit on the field will probably be the Michigan offense, their defense should be able to contain this Crimson Tide offense, and that weak offensive line that Milroe will be behind. I haven't bet the game yet, but this is how I am leaning.

Dan Karpuc: Michigan ML (-118, FanDuel)

The Wolverines have clearly been the best team in college football this season. Michigan earned quality wins over Ohio State (30-24) and Penn State (24-15) and crushed all of their other opponents outside of a seven-point win at Maryland. Meanwhile, Alabama is coming off of their awesome win at Georgia in the SEC championship, but needed a Hail Mary miracle to beat Auburn the week before, had a three-point win over Arkansas, a six-point win over Texas A&M and lost to Texas early in the season. It feels like a lot has gone Nick Saban’s way this year, but I’m not buying the hype surrounding the Crimson Tide. Michigan is the better team in all phases, in my opinion, and I expect them to show it in this CFP semifinal.

Kate Constable: Michigan ML (-118, FanDuel)

If you’re like me and you want to back Michigan, I would wait until a little closer to kickoff to bet this. The line has been moving in Alabama’s favor and I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Wolverines flip to an underdog as we get closer. Milroe is going to be the best quarterback Michigan’s defense has seen this season by far. He’s gotten progressively better as the season has gone on and is a dynamic, mobile QB, which is something Michigan hasn’t faced much of.

However, you could make an argument for the amount of talent on both sidelines, so what I think this game is going to come down to is which team plays a more flawless game. In that sense, my money's all over the Wolverines. They’ve only turned the ball over twice in their last 10 games and they lead the nation in fewest penalties per game (2.9) and penalty yards per game (26.3). The Tide needed a turnover by both Auburn and Georgia, as well as a missed FG by Georgia to win those games. Michigan isn’t going to give Bama any extra opportunities, which is why I’m backing the guys in blue.

Lucy Burdge: Michigan -1 (-110, BetMGM)

It’s the granddaddy of them all and I think Michigan will be the team to cover the spread here. The Wolverines are coming off of toppling Iowa, and have covered the spread in three of their last four games. Plus, a BetQL trend favoring them to cover here is that Jim Harbaugh is 28-11 ATS when the total is between 42.5 and 49 while coaching Michigan. I see Michigan’s offense overpowering Alabama’s defense enough to cover this spread in the Rose Bowl.

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