Army vs. Navy: Best Bets For Service Academy Classic

Army vs. Navy: Best Bets For Service Academy Classic

The regular season concludes this week with the annual Service Academy game between Army and Navy. It's usually a competitive affair between these two proud teams full of heroes, and we have everything you need to make money off this contest. BetQL has you covered for everything college football, so let's dive right into this contest.

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Army at Navy: Live Week 15 Odds

Army Black Knights Week 15 Outlook

The Black Knights have had worse seasons, that's for sure. Sitting at 5-6, this is one of the better seasons they have had in some time. They are also on a roll right now, winning their last three straight games, including a massive outright upset win over fellow service academy Air Force as an 18.5-point underdog. As you might expect, this is not a team that wins via conventional means on offense, but they have gotten the job done recently nonetheless.

Speaking of the offense, you have to ignore some of the statistical rankings because of how this team plays. For instance, they are ranked 131st in passing yards per game, which makes a ton of sense since they never pass the football. QB Bryson Dailey has just 106 attempts all season, so obviously they are going to be at the very bottom here. They also rank 10th in rushing yards per game, which again makes sense because they run the ball constantly with the triple option. Dailey is not only their leading passer but also their leading rusher. He has more rushing attempts than passing attempts this season.

Defensively, they are 97th in yards per play allowed and give up a lot of explosive plays. They also have next to no pass rush, and only get to the opposing QB 1.5 times per game on average. The only thing that they have going for them is their passing defense, which ranks 22nd in the FBS.

Navy Midshipmen Week 15 Outlook

This hasn't been the best season for Navy, which usually is much better than Army in most seasons. They also own a 5-6 record, but have not been as hot coming into the game. The Midshipmen have lost three of their last five games and got blown out of the water in their last matchup with SMU 59-14. Army is not even close to as good as the Mustangs are, but it should still be a challenge for Navy with a team that is more on their level.

Much like Army, the Navy offense is run through the triple-option. They have only attempted 75 passes all season, which should tell you a lot about what we will see in this game. There will be a lot of running going on, and the Midshipmen rank 14th in the FBS in rushing yards per game. They are dead last in passing, as you would expect, and also rank 132nd in first downs gained per game. They are 118th in yards per play, so very rarely do they get explosive plays. Let's just be honest, this offense is among the very worst in the country.

Defensively, Navy has been quite a bit better than Army. They rank third in the FBS in red zone defense, allowing opponents to score on just 71% of their drives down there. They are also 22nd in third-down conversion percentage allowed, which is far better than the Black Knights at No. 96.

Army at Navy Best Bets

Matt Horner: Lean u28.5 (-120, FanDuel)

I haven't made a bet here yet, but I'd lean the under. This game is going to be nothing but the constant running of the football, and that is why we have a total of just 28.5. The strongest unit on the field is the Navy defense, but their offense is so terrible, I feel it is going to be hard for them to score at all. Army is a small favorite, but they are not going to find it easy to score either. It's ugly, but hold your nose and take the under.

Dan Karpuc: Under 28.5

The under had hit in 16 straight Army-Navy games before last year's 20-17 final in overtime. I’m going right back to the under this year as both teams don’t pass, love to eat up the clock and don’t do anything efficiently on that end of the ball. Only Air Force has passed the football less than these two teams and both have been effective at limiting touchdowns in the red zone. I expect this to be a low-scoring slugfest between two 5-6 teams that want to finish the year at .500 in front of a nationally-televised audience.

Kate Constable: Under 28.5 

It’s never a good idea to base a bet solely on a trend -- unless you’re betting the under on Army vs. Navy. There is a bit of sarcasm there, but as Dan mentioned, the under hitting in 16 straight games is pretty wild. Both teams are scraping the bottom of the barrel in terms of points per game with Navy ranking No. 123 with 17.7 points per game and Army ranking No. 124 with 17.2. Meanwhile they also rank No. 54 and 55 respectively in points allowed per game. With how similar these two teams are, I find it hard to imagine one puts up a boatload of points and blows the other out of the water. Back the under!

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