Miami Marlins vsNew York Mets Prediction
The New York Mets are 26-13 at home this season and are solid favorites to beat the Miami Marlins who are 19-24 on the road this season. The Mets have a better than 55% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Mets' starter Trevor Williams is forecasted to have a better game than Marlins' starter Daniel Castano. Trevor Williams has a 47% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Daniel Castano has a 32% chance of a QS. If Trevor Williams has a quality start the Mets has a 82% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 4.3 and he has a 35% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Mets win 62%. In Daniel Castano quality starts the Marlins win 64%. He has a 15% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 64% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the New York Mets is Pete Alonso who averaged 2.82 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 50% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Mets have a 75% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Miami Marlins is Garrett Cooper who averaged 2.25 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 39% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Marlins have a 50% chance of winning.