Pittsburgh Pirates vsCincinnati Reds Prediction
The Cincinnati Reds are 14-26 at home this season and are heavy favorites to beat the Pittsburgh Pirates who are 13-25 on the road this season. The Reds have a better than 60% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Reds' starter Tyler Mahle is forecasted to have a better game than Pirates' starter Bryse Wilson. Tyler Mahle has a 59% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Bryse Wilson has a 15% chance of a QS. If Tyler Mahle has a quality start the Reds has a 92% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 3.5 and he has a 16% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Reds win 79%. In Bryse Wilson quality starts the Pirates win 49%. He has a 13% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 49% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Cincinnati Reds is Brandon Drury who averaged 3.2 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 57% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Reds have a 86% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Pittsburgh Pirates is Bryan Reynolds who averaged 2.06 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 33% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Pirates have a 30% chance of winning.